February, 2003
© 2000, 2001  Scott S. Emerson, M.D., Ph.D.
Session 2: 37
Inadequacy of Fixed Sample Methods
Simulate 100,000 Trials under the Null Hypothesis
Three equally spaced level .05 analyses
Pattern of                 Proportion Significant
Significance           1st      2nd      3rd      Ever
1st only             .03046                      .03046
1st, 2nd             .00807   .00807             .00807
1st, 3rd             .00317            .00317    .00317
1st, 2nd, 3rd        .00868   .00868   .00868    .00868
2nd only                      .01921             .01921
2nd, 3rd                      .01426   .01426    .01426
3rd only                               .02445    .02445
Any pattern          .05038   .05022   .05056    .10830