February, 2003
© 2000, 2001, 2003 Scott S. Emerson, M.D., Ph.D.
Example:
When playing poker, I get 4 full houses in a row
Bayesian:
·Knows the
probability that I might be a cheater based on information derived
prior to observing me play
·Knows the
probability that I would get 4 full houses for every level of
cheating that I might engage in
·Computes the
posterior probability that I was cheating (probability after
observing me play)
·If that
probability is low, calls me a cheater