February, 2003
© 2000, 2001, 2003 Scott S. Emerson, M.D., Ph.D.
Screening Studies: 9
Preliminary Studies in Screening
Scenario 1: Only large trials (cont.)
Statistically significant results: 143 significant trials
·97.5% of effective treatments: 98 studies significant
·5% of ineffective treatments: 45 studies significant
·
Predictive value of a positive: 68%
·Only 68% of the 143 treatments identified truly work