February, 2003
© 2000, 2001, 2003 Scott S. Emerson, M.D., Ph.D.
Scenario 2: Use of pilot studies (cont.)
Statistically significant results: 749 significant pilot studies
·15%
of effective treatments: 187 studies significant
·5% of ineffective treatments: 562 studies significant
·
·Predictive value of a positive: 25%
·25% of treatments in significant pilot studies truly
work