February, 2003
© 2000, 2001, 2003 Scott S. Emerson, M.D., Ph.D.
Scenario 2: Use of pilot studies (cont.)}
Statistically significant results: 178 significant
pilot studies
·80%
of effective treatments: 150 studies significant
·5% of ineffective treatments: 28 studies significant
·
·Predictive value of a positive: 84%
·84% of the 178 identified treatments truly work