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Common Probability Models
  • Characterization of a Probability Distribution and Summary Measure
    • Type of random variable
      • continuous, discrete, censored
    • Summary measure used for outcome
      • mean, geometric mean, proportion, odds, hazard
    • Measure used for comparison of groups
      • difference, ratio
    • Quantification of statistical information
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Common Probability Models
  • Comparing means (e.g., Normal probability model of mean response)
    • Continuously distributed outcome:
      • e.g., blood pressure

    • Outcome summarized by mean response


    • Compare groups by difference in means


    • Information measured by within group variance
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Common Probability Models
  • Comparing geometric means (e.g., Lognormal probability model-- log outcome is normal)
    • Continuously distributed, skewed outcome:
      • e.g., serum cholesterol, PSA

    • Outcome summarized by (log) geometric mean (median) response


    • Compare groups by (log) ratio of geometric means (medians)


    • Information measured by within group variance of log transformed response
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Common Probability Models
  • Comparing binomial proportions
    • Binary (dichotomous) outcome:
      • e.g., tumor response, 30 day mortality

    • Outcome summarized by probability of event


    • Compare groups by difference in proportions


    • Information from mean variance relationship under null or alternative
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Common Probability Models
  • Comparing binomial odds
    • Binary (dichotomous) outcome:
      • e.g., tumor response, 30 day mortality

    • Outcome summarized by (log) odds of event


    • Compare groups by (log) ratio of odds


    • Information from mean variance relationship under null or alternative
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Common Probability Models
  • Comparing rates (Poisson probability model)
    • Outcome counts events:
      • e.g., number of lesions, number of infections

    • Outcome summarized by (log) event rate


    • Compare groups by (log) ratio of event rates


    • Information from mean variance relationship under null or alternative
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Common Probability Models
  • Hazard ratios (Proportional hazards survival model)
    • Right censored time to event:
      • e.g., time to death

    • Outcome summarized by hazard (semi-parametric)


    • Compare groups by (log) ratio of hazards


    • Information proportional to number of events