101
Case Study:
Marketability
Potential to have statistically significant treatment effect estimate of -0.06 or better
•O’Brien-Fleming efficacy boundary at third analysis:
–Terminate if bias adjusted estimate -0.055 or better
–What is the chance of obtaining -0.06 or better at the fourth analysis if study continues?
•If true effect is -0.07, probability of 4.1% of BAM < -0.06
•If true effect is -0.06, probability of 3.6% of BAM < -0.06